A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is now in effect for Jamaica as the area of low pressure over the westcentral Caribbean Sea becomes better organized while moving closer to the island and has the potential to
develop into a tropical cyclone by tonight. This means that tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat to Jamaica within 48 hours. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH for low-lying and flood-prone areas of the island has also been upgraded to a FLASH FLOOD WARNING for southern and eastern parishes of Westmoreland, St Elizabeth, Manchester, Clarendon, St Catherine, Kingston, St Andrew, St Thomas, Portland and St Mary, and remains in effect elsewhere.

At 4:00 p.m. Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 22 was centred near latitude 15.2 degrees North, longitude 81.5 degrees West. This is about 485 kilometres (300 miles) southwest of Negril Point or 590 kilometres (365 miles) west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

The system is moving towards the north-northeast near 15 km/h (9 mph). A northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 55 km/h (35 mph), with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and tropical storm on Friday.

On the forecast track, the centre of the system is expected to continue moving towards Jamaica tonight and across the island late on Friday, before moving towards southeastern Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

While the potential tropical cyclone is in the vicinity of Jamaica, it is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds, primarily over eastern and southern parishes tonight and tomorrow. Flooding has already been reported in the southeast of the island and will spread over southern and eastern parishes in the next 12-24 hours. Landslides should also be anticipated in vulnerable sections of the island.

Fishers on the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland as the potential tropical cyclone is expected to move over Jamaica’s territorial waters by tomorrow. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and those in port are advised not to venture out. Strong winds are expected to be out of the east tonight and reach near tropical storm force tomorrow morning.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests are encouraged to pay special attention to further Releases. The next Bulletin on this system will be issued at 8:00 p.m. today.